“Why The House Should Worry”

By:

Armand Arief Sim (2010)

Teaching Staff at University of Indonesia’s School of Economics

 

In any nation, people’s welfare is a very important element that can guarantee life of a nation. When people are economically or politically threatened and becoming uncomfortable with the whole situation, a nation’s stability stands at the edge. Indonesia is rife with the evidence. Soekarno did not expect what he got when people were anxious of communism plus found financial difficulties to eat; the late President Soeharto was thrown away when people got fed up with corruption plus financial crisis started to break. It is no wonder if people’s comfort ranks top at the list of priorities for Indonesian government to pursue. However, no matter how hard they try, they will not succeed if people have no trust on them and see them not credible at all. In democratic nation like Indonesia, government is not the only one seeking trust from people. There are other guys in parliament building: the House of Representatives. In the last few months The House has been trying to accumulate some trust from people and to develop a new image through a tedious drama called Century.

After being paused for a while, the drama is about to begin again. KPK is scheduled to investigate Boediono and Sri Mulyani. Before getting absorbed by theatrical actions, it is harmless if we look back of what The House has done. We have seen that, despite limited evidence, they presumptuously dared to give such recommendation and urge President Yudhoyono to take their recommendations to put Finance Minister Sri Mulyani and Vice President Boediono off duty for investigation sake. How could they attain such confidence? Ugly corrupt image of Indonesia was their momentum. Corrupt bureaucrats are breathing under the neck. Indonesian people have been fed up with this chronic problem. Nevertheless, this is a good sign of development in our democracy level. The House has rolled the ball in doing some checking and balancing on the government.

However, this article is not to judge whether what The House has been doing is misleading or not, but what the author cares is how The House has made the most serious mistake in order to achieve people’s trust: they played with people’s expectation. People put their trust on them and see if The House can be a powerful force to get the case revealed. The track of suspicious flow of money is the most critical factor of what people truly want. And yet, what The House did was so unexpected. They reached a conclusion implying Sri Mulyani and Boediono to be the hideous criminals, instead.

The House did not realize that they are betting their money on the table. They can reap all the money or can lose it all on the table. They are messing up with expectation. Many economic pundits tried to pull people’s strings by writing articles convincing that Sri Mulyani and Boediono are not criminals which is proven by their clean and flawless track records. However, these attempts were in vain. The strings were broken. Most public did not get swayed. Demonstrations and discussions in televisions against Sri Mulyani and Boediono were increasing greatly, instead. This indirectly and unconsciously confirmed what the House did was right.

This is the point where they might get a right blow in the face in return or get the whole bread. When the house finally reached the dubious conclusion, people were more likely to think that the targets Sri Mulyani and Boediono were guilty for bailing out Century and they are more likely to expect them to be wrong. President SBY has ordered serious law enforcement on this case. Investigation by KPK is now in progress and by then it is not over for Sri Mulyani and Boediono to have their reputation stored. They might benefit from people’s rational expectation.

What is rational expectation? This concept comes from economics suggesting that when variable changes, people change their expectation, assuming people know all information. Well, people might not get all the information but television, newspapers and other media are than enough. Even those who have not intended on following the saga might stumble into some story about it and have some perception in mind. In this case, the variable is Sri Mulyani and Boediono being guilty as expected by The House. When they are found not guilty people are to change their expectation and this might generate unintended consequences for the House and this is pretty damaging to its new image building.

What are the unintended consequences? When the target is missed, people’s trust is going to diminish up to the hilt and disappointments are mounting in return. Those who did not support the House would kick back and those who initially supported the House would leave them. Moreover, media will start reviewing what they have wasted in the past, ranging from wasteful energy and money. Trust that the House has been trying to accumulate is definitely going to evaporate right away when this happens. When this hits the button, it takes much bigger efforts to make people at least see how its members are doing. One thing for sure is some resistance in people’s mind.  

In future occasions, Ruhut Sitompul can say curse words against other parliament members in the middle of meetings or they could smack each other but public would see this as another regular occasion inside parliament building. Their image is still members sleeping in the middle of meetings. Believe me. No trust gained, original image of the house restored, and, unfortunately, wasted energy and money. What a miserable story we have.